Profitability Scenarios: Best Case, Worst Case, and How to Prepare for Each

The future is uncertain. Instead of guessing one number, smart business owners model three: best case (things go great), worst case (things go badly), and realistic case (most likely). This guide teaches you to scenario-plan and build resilience.

Building Three Scenarios

🟢 Best Case (30% probability)

Everything goes right. Your marketing works. You get press. You grow 50%+ year-over-year.

Example: Revenue $150K, Profit $50K, Personal income $45K

🟡 Realistic Case (50% probability)

Moderate growth. Some wins, some losses. This is most likely.

Example: Revenue $100K, Profit $35K, Personal income $32K

🔴 Worst Case (20% probability)

Things don't go as planned. Slower growth, increased competition, unexpected costs.

Example: Revenue $65K, Profit $18K, Personal income $16K (or loss)

Key: Plan your spending based on realistic case, not best case. Worst case helps you prepare contingencies.

Preparing for Worst Case

The worst case isn't a tragedy—it's a signal. Here's how to prepare:

Build a cash cushion. If worst case gives you $18K profit, set aside 3 months of fixed costs. When bad times come, you survive.

Identify what could go wrong. Supply chain disruption? Competitor undercuts you? Customer exodus? What would cut 30% of revenue?

Plan cost reductions. If revenue drops 30%, what fixed costs can you cut? Renegotiate rent? Cancel subscriptions? Know your moves in advance.

Hope for Best. Plan for Worst. Build for Reality.

TrueCraft helps you model scenarios and see financial impacts in real-time.

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